- The 2024 Presidential Election: A Manufactured Victory
On July 28, 2024, the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral, CNE) declared Nicolás Maduro the winner of the presidential election with just over 51% of the vote. However, the process was marred by a series of significant irregularities that immediately cast doubt on the credibility of the outcome. The CNE failed to release precinct-level tally sheets, declined to conduct legally mandated audits, and provided no transparent avenue for independent verification of the vote count. These omissions represented not mere administrative failures but a calculated effort to prevent electoral scrutiny and suppress the possibility of contestation.
Moreover, the disqualification and repression of key opposition figures constituted a direct violation of the principle of political pluralism. Edmundo González, widely considered the opposition’s legitimate candidate and believed by many to have won the election, was not only disqualified but also faced criminal charges, including conspiracy and incitement. An arrest warrant issued against him forced his flight from the country, a move symbolic of the broader dismantling of competitive politics in Venezuela. The use of the judiciary as an instrument of repression aligns with broader patterns observed in hybrid regimes where legal institutions are weaponized to neutralize dissent (Levitsky & Way, 2010).
III. The 2025 Parliamentary Elections: Boycott, Fragmentation, and Manufactured Consent
The May 25, 2025 parliamentary elections further illustrated the collapse of electoral integrity in Venezuela. Major opposition coalitions, most notably the Democratic Unitary Platform (Plataforma Unitaria Democrática, PUD), announced a boycott in protest of the government’s failure to provide electoral guarantees. This decision reflected both strategic resistance and a recognition of the futility of contesting elections in a structurally rigged system. However, the boycott also exacerbated existing divisions within the opposition. Several parties broke ranks and participated independently, leading to their expulsion from the coalition and weakening the broader anti-government movement.
In the days leading up to the vote, the government claimed to have uncovered a terrorist plot aimed at disrupting the electoral process. This narrative—frequently invoked by authoritarian regimes to justify crackdowns—was accompanied by the arrest of dozens of Venezuelans and foreigners. Among those detained was Juan Pablo Guanipa, a prominent opposition leader, who faced terrorism-related charges widely denounced as politically motivated. These arrests served both as a pre-election intimidation tactic and as a post-electoral mechanism for silencing remaining voices of dissent. The strategy closely mirrors the concept of “autocratic legalism,” whereby regimes use legal means for illiberal ends (Scheppele, 2018).
- State Repression and Human Rights Violations
Since the contested 2024 election, Venezuela has witnessed a dramatic escalation in state repression. Pro-government paramilitary groups known as colectivos, often operating with tacit or explicit state support, have played a central role in violently suppressing opposition. Over 2,000 individuals have been detained for acts as minimal as protesting or publishing critical statements. These individuals are often charged under vaguely defined statutes such as “incitement to hatred” and “terrorism,” which carry penalties of up to 30 years in prison.
Reports from human rights organizations document a widespread pattern of enforced disappearances, incommunicado detentions, and torture. Detainees are frequently denied access to legal counsel, held in unofficial detention centers, and subjected to brutal physical and psychological abuse. Alarmingly, children and adolescents have not been spared from this repression. The use of violence against minors constitutes a grave violation of international human rights law and signals the extent to which the Venezuelan state disregards the most basic norms of humanitarian conduct.
In an effort to further control dissent, the government has deployed digital surveillance strategies. Citizens are encouraged to report protest activity via mobile applications, effectively transforming neighbors into instruments of state monitoring. This surveillance state is particularly active in low-income neighborhoods, where abusive raids and arbitrary arrests are common. Families of the disappeared are left with the harrowing task of searching through morgues and detention centers in the hope of locating their loved ones. Even foreign nationals—humanitarian workers, journalists, and tourists—have been arbitrarily detained, with little to no communication provided to consulates or families.
- Socio-Economic Collapse and Forced Migration
Political repression in Venezuela occurs within the broader context of a catastrophic socio-economic collapse. As of 2025, over 20 million Venezuelans—nearly two-thirds of the population—live in conditions of multidimensional poverty. Basic necessities such as food, clean water, medicine, and electricity are inaccessible for large segments of the population. In the face of state failure, Venezuelans have adopted extreme survival strategies, ranging from subsistence farming to the informal exchange of goods and services.
The crisis has driven what the UN High Commissioner for Refugees describes as one of the largest mass displacements in the Western Hemisphere. Since 2014, approximately 8 million Venezuelans have fled the country, seeking asylum in neighboring states such as Colombia, Peru, and Brazil, as well as farther afield in the United States and Europe. These refugees face prolonged asylum processes, legal precarity, and xenophobic hostility. The international community has struggled to provide adequate protection and integration for these displaced populations, creating an enduring humanitarian crisis.
- International and Domestic Responses: Condemnation Without Consequences
The response from international bodies has been consistent in its condemnation but limited in its efficacy. Organizations such as the United Nations, the Organization of American States (OAS), and the European Union have issued strong statements decrying the lack of electoral transparency and the widespread human rights abuses. Some nations have imposed targeted sanctions against Venezuelan officials, and there have been repeated calls for impartial monitoring and the release of political prisoners.
However, efforts at dialogue—both regionally and within Venezuela—have largely failed. Negotiations between the government and opposition factions, often brokered by foreign governments or NGOs, have stalled or collapsed due to lack of trust, asymmetries of power, and the regime’s unwillingness to make concessions. While figures like María Corina Machado have called for electoral boycotts and characterized the regime’s actions as “state terrorism,” others within the opposition have opted to participate in elections as a form of resistance, deepening internal rifts.
This fragmentation mirrors the challenges faced by opposition movements in other authoritarian contexts, where strategic disagreements over participation, protest, and negotiation often weaken collective capacity. Moreover, the regime’s ability to alternate between co-optation and coercion has left the opposition with few viable avenues for mobilization.
VII. Conclusion: Authoritarian Entrenchment and Democratic Decay
The political crisis in Venezuela from 2024 to 2025 illustrates the dynamics of authoritarian entrenchment in the 21st century. What began as a contested electoral outcome evolved into a sustained campaign of repression, disinformation, and institutional erosion. Through a combination of manipulated electoral processes, targeted repression, and socio-economic neglect, the Maduro government has effectively dismantled the core pillars of democratic governance.
At the same time, the opposition remains trapped between principled resistance and strategic compromise, hampered by internal divisions and the overwhelming coercive power of the state. The international community, while vocal in its support for democracy and human rights, has been largely ineffective in altering the course of Venezuelan politics.
In sum, Venezuela represents not only a national tragedy but also a cautionary tale of how modern authoritarian regimes adapt democratic forms to subvert democratic substance. As long as the current trajectory continues, prospects for meaningful political change remain dim, and the human cost will continue to rise.
REFERENCES
- “Venezuela.” World Report 2025, Human Rights Watch, 2025, https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2025/country-chapters/venezuela.
- “2025 Venezuelan Parliamentary Election.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Venezuelan_parliamentary_election.
- “’Farcical’: Venezuelan Opposition Denounces Arrest before Weekend Vote.” Al Jazeera, 23 May 2025, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/5/23/farcical-venezuelan-opposition-denounces-arrest-before-weekend-vote.
- “Venezuela: Brutal Crackdown before Elections.” Human Rights Watch, 30 Apr. 2025, https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/04/30/venezuela-brutal-crackdown-elections.
- “Venezuela’s Democratic Resistance: Challenges and Prospects in 2025.” Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), https://www.wola.org/analysis/venezuela-democratic-resistance-challenges-and-prospects-2025/.
- “Venezuela in 2025: Unexpected Turns Mark the Start of the Political Year.” Venezuelanalysis, https://venezuelanalysis.com/columns/venezuela-in-2025-unexpected-turns-mark-the-start-of-the-political-year/.
- “Venezuela: Statement by the High Representative on Behalf of the EU on the Events of 10 January 2025.” Council of the European Union, 10 Jan. 2025, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/01/10/venezuela-statement-by-the-high-representative-on-behalf-of-the-eu-on-the-events-of-10-january-2025/.
- Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic) Crisis Response Plan 2025. International Organization for Migration (IOM), https://crisisresponse.iom.int/response/venezuela-bolivarian-republic-crisis-response-plan-2025.
- “Venezuela.” BBC News, https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/cp3mvpm3933t.
- “Venezuela.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuela.
Prepared by Şevval Tufan
The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position or views of the Istanbul Peace Research Center (IPRC)