The election of Joseph Aoun as President of Lebanon in January 2025 marked a significant breakthrough after a two-year leadership vacuum in the country. Aoun, who was previously the commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, emerged as a compromise candidate supported by Saudi Arabia, France and the United States amid a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Aoun’s presidency will show new dynamics for domestic stability, as well as for rebalancing relations with Hezbollah and regional relations, particularly with Israel and Iran. This observation examines the multi-layered factors behind Aoun’s rise, the political context in the region and the challenges facing Lebanon.
On January 9, 2025, Joseph Aoun won 99 votes out of 128 members of parliament in Lebanon, which had been without a president for more than two years. He ended a political deadlock fueled by sectarian divisions in the shadow of Hezbollah (Carnegie Endowment). The election came on the heels of a devastating 14-month Hezbollah-Israel conflict that had caused serious loss of life and infrastructure destruction, and weakened Hezbollah’s power in Lebanon. Aoun’s military background and perceived neutrality made him a consensus candidate who could overcome the country’s complex sectarian divisions. His election was supported by influential international actors, most notably the United States, France and Saudi Arabia. The US’s support for Aoun’s election was evident. The Biden administration viewed Aoun as a figure who would consolidate state authority in order to reduce Iran’s influence in the region and ensure stability without engaging in direct military conflict (CSIS, 2025). The United States has long viewed the Lebanese Armed Forces as a counterweight to Hezbollah’s influence and has provided Lebanon with $23 million in military aid since 2014 (U.S. Department of State). France’s support is based on its historical ties to Lebanon and its pursuit of regional stability. Saudi Arabia’s support is in line with its strategy to limit Hezbollah’s influence due to its Iranian connections. This international coalition of support emphasizes the goal of reestablishing state control, but requires careful balancing, given sectarian dynamics and the power of non-state actors.
Aoun’s rise has been heavily influenced by the geopolitical context as well. The weakening of Iran-backed Hezbollah, both politically and militarily, after the war provided an opportunity for Washington and its allies to support a candidate that suits their regional interests (Al Jazeera, 2025). The US strategy aims to strengthen the Lebanese Armed Forces against Hezbollah’s military capacity and adopts a balancing approach rather than direct confrontation. A critical development before Aoun’s presidency was the ceasefire agreement brokered by the US and France in November 2024. This agreement envisaged Hezbollah’s withdrawal from the Israel-Lebanon border and the full security of the border provided by the Lebanese Armed Forces (Middle East Eye, 2024). The ceasefire aimed to formalize state control in a contested security area. Moreover, Aoun’s presidency will play a major role in institutionalizing this transition. Aoun’s presidency also poses challenges. Although the Lebanese Armed Forces are positioned as the primary security force of the state, they include a significant number of Shia soldiers who see Hezbollah not as a militia but as a legitimate resistance force (Chatham House, 2021). This complex structure reflects the intertwined relations between the army and Hezbollah and the nuances arising from the socio-political context. Therefore, the disarmament initiatives taken by the Aoun government, if not carefully considered, could lead to fractures in the army. Therefore, the new government must take a very sensitive approach, taking all these dynamics into account. Relations with Israel, another important actor in the region, continue to be a sensitive issue for Lebanon. Israel continues to maintain a military presence on five strategic hills in southern Lebanon. Although Israel considers the status of areas such as Shebaa Farms and Kfarchouba hills to be controversial, the Lebanese state states that these areas are its sovereign territory (thecradle.co).
The airstrike launched by Israel on Beirut on March 28, 2025, further increased tensions in the region. Israel claimed that it carried out this attack in response to rockets fired from Lebanon, but Hezbollah denied any involvement in these attacks (Al Jazeera, 2025). According to the ceasefire agreement signed in November 2024, Southern Lebanon was supposed to be cleared of all Hezbollah weapons, Israeli forces were to withdraw from the region, and Lebanese Armed Forces forces were to be deployed in the region. The ceasefire envisaged an end to Israel’s bombardment and ground operations in Lebanon, as well as Hezbollah’s daily rocket attacks on Israel. However, at this point, both sides are accusing each other of not fully implementing the terms of the agreement (Aawsat, 2025). President Aoun announced that an investigation had been launched into the attack, saying that Hezbollah was not responsible for the recent rocket fire against Israel. Aoun condemned all hateful attempts to return Lebanon to a cycle of violence (alaraby.com). French President Macron said that Israel’s continued violations of the ceasefire were a unilateral act that contradicted the ceasefire (Ch23, 2025). On the other hand, US State Department spokesman Bruce said that Israel had the right to respond to rockets fired by Hezbollah terrorists and reminded Lebanon of its responsibility to disarm the border (Al Jaazera). In short, Joseph Aoun’s presidency will be a critical test in terms of both maintaining domestic political balances and maintaining balanced relations with external actors.
In conclusion, the important goals of the Aoun administration are to restore Lebanon’s fragmented political unity, to reform the worn-out economy, and to redefine its place in regional politics. These goals can be achieved by overcoming domestic political divisions and the fractures over Hezbollah’s role, and by balancing the interests of international stakeholders in the region. Time will tell whether Aoun’s leadership will lead Lebanon towards a stronger institutional structure or towards political fragmentation.
Works Cited
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/full-text-ceasefire-agreement-lebanon-and-israel
https://www.csis.org/analysis/lebanon-finally-elects-president
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2587798/middle-east
https://carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/diwan/2025/01/reaction-shot?lang=en¢er=middle-east
Chatham House. “How Hezbollah Holds Sway Over the Lebanese State.” June 2021.
https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-lebanon
إسرائيل تقصف الضاحية الجنوبية لبيروت ل أول مرة منذ اتفاق وقف النار https://aawsat.com
واشنطن تدعم إسرائيل بعد قصفها الضاحية وتطالب بنزع سلاح حزب الله https://www.aljazeera.net/news/
عون شرح مسار الإصلاحات… وماكرون وعد بمزيد من الدعم والمراقبة https://ch23.com/Article/253973
https://thecradle.co/articles/why-israel-occupies-five-lebanese-hills
Presented by Zahide İlayda GİRGİN