One of the most defining dynamics shaping the transformation of the international system in the 21st century is the growing strategic rivalry between China and the United States (US). This rivalry not only affects the balance of power in the Pacific but also deeply influences the fragile state structures of South Asia. In this context, Pakistan stands out as one of the countries most affected by this global competition. Hosting China’s economic investments under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as well as maintaining historical military and diplomatic relations with the US, Pakistan has become an actor striving to balance between these two great powers. However, this balancing policy has also brought with it numerous structural vulnerabilities that threaten internal stability.
Geopolitical Pressure and Strategic Balance
Located at the heart of Asia, Pakistan’s geopolitical position has historically made it a theater of great power rivalry. This position has enabled Pakistan to host one of the most critical components of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), developed by China to secure its energy and trade routes to the west. CPEC facilitates China’s access to the Middle East via the Gwadar Port and reduces its dependence on the Strait of Malacca.
However, this strategic partnership is perceived as a challenge by the US. While the US aims to contain China through its strategic ties with India, it simultaneously exerts indirect pressure on Pakistan. Occasional proposals by the US for military bases in Pakistan or demands for land access through Afghanistan are linked not only to counter-terrorism but also to efforts to establish influence on China’s western front.
India’s Role in the Regional Power Equation
India, as a key strategic ally of the United States in the Indo-Pacific framework, plays a critical role in the evolving dynamics of the China-US rivalry. Washington’s deepening defense and intelligence cooperation with New Delhi—evident in agreements like BECA, COMCASA, and LEMOA—aims to empower India as a counterweight to China in South Asia. However, this trilateral equation directly impacts Pakistan’s security calculus.
The Indo-US partnership has intensified Islamabad’s threat perception, compelling Pakistan to further align with Beijing both strategically and militarily. Joint China-Pakistan military drills, intelligence-sharing mechanisms, and arms cooperation have increased in response. Moreover, the India factor fuels regional polarization, as India frequently raises concerns about CPEC passing through Gilgit-Baltistan—territory it claims as part of the larger Kashmir dispute. This injects additional tension into the China-Pakistan strategic framework and exacerbates Pakistan’s internal vulnerabilities amid external rivalry.
Economic Dependency and Political Influence
Pakistan’s externally dependent economic structure facilitates the political influence of major powers like China and the US. While China’s infrastructure investments provide short-term economic growth, they also bring debt risks and are criticized domestically for their lack of transparency. On the other hand, the US continues to play a decisive role in Pakistan’s economy through financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
These economic dependencies create a landscape susceptible to external pressure in political decision-making. IMF reform demands or Chinese loan conditions under CPEC have become guiding factors in domestic politics. This is especially evident during election periods or times of governmental crises.
Military and External Influence
In Pakistan, the military is not only the dominant security institution but also one of the most powerful actors in domestic politics. Long-standing military cooperation with the US has strengthened the military’s role in decision-making processes. However, the strategic relations developed with China in recent years have the potential to alter this balance. The military has created a special unit for the security of CPEC projects and framed Chinese investments as a matter of “national interest.”
Political parties, meanwhile, attempt to balance between these two powers in foreign policy, leading to internal political polarization. The branding of one side as “pro-China” and the other as “pro-Western” fuels societal division. This polarization is one of the core threats to political stability.
Security Risk Stemming from Afghanistan
Following the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in 2021, Pakistan’s border security has significantly weakened. The increase in attacks by the Tehrik-i Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is not only an internal security issue but also poses a strategic dilemma in terms of foreign policy.
While Pakistan accuses the Taliban administration of insufficient cooperation on border security, US efforts to re-engage in Afghanistan through intelligence operations pressure Islamabad to choose a side. US offers of “logistical facilities” to Pakistan represent, from China’s perspective, a threat to Gwadar Port and the western frontier. Thus, developments along the Afghanistan-Pakistan axis are direct reflections of the China-US rivalry and leave Pakistan squeezed between internal security concerns and external pressures.
Ethnic Tensions in Balochistan
Balochistan, one of the most critical routes of CPEC, is at the heart of Chinese investments due to its geographical position and natural resources. However, the inadequate integration of the local population into these projects has led to an increase in ethnically-based unrest. Although about 35% of CPEC projects pass through Balochistan, over 70% of the local population has not been included in employment or economic partnership processes. Local surveys show that 60% of Balochistan residents view Chinese investments as “external interference in cooperation with the central government.”
This perception has prompted ethnic separatist movements to target Chinese investments through armed actions. The central government’s security-focused responses further exacerbate tensions and hinder social cohesion. The US, highlighting these developments in terms of human rights and democratic governance, supports narratives that question China’s legitimacy in the region. China, on the other hand, uses the security vulnerabilities in Balochistan as justification for greater involvement in Pakistan’s security architecture. This turns regional ethnic dynamics into an extension of global rivalry.
Internal Security and External Interventions
The National Action Plan (NAP) announced in 2014 aimed to reshape Pakistan’s internal security strategy. However, institutional weaknesses in implementation, lack of coordination between federal and provincial levels, and inadequacies in the ideological domain have limited the plan’s effectiveness.
The rise in TTP attacks reveals not only Pakistan’s internal security gaps but also the indirect reflections of the China-US rivalry. Militants infiltrating from Afghanistan target Chinese investments to destabilize the region, providing a pretext for China to directly intervene in security matters. The strategy Pakistan develops in response to these pressures will be critical not only for internal security but also for foreign policy stability.
Conclusion
Pakistan, situated at the center of global strategic competition, occupies a sensitive position with its fragile political and social structure. The economic, diplomatic, and military influences from China and the US provide short-term advantages but, in the long term, threaten Pakistan’s decision-making autonomy and political stability. Increasing ethnic tensions and security threats in sensitive regions such as Balochistan enhance the influence of external actors, further complicating internal dynamics.
Therefore, Pakistan’s priority must be to develop a multi-dimensional, balanced, and independent strategy in foreign policy and to ensure sustainable stability in internal security through an inclusive governance model that embraces ethnic diversity. Otherwise, the effects of the China-US rivalry could transform from diplomatic competition into structural fractures felt in every layer of society.
References
– Small, Andrew. The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia’s New Geopolitics. Oxford University Press, 2015.
– Rolland, Nadège. China’s Eurasian Century? Political and Strategic Implications of the Belt and Road Initiative. National Bureau of Asian Research, 2017.
– Fair, C. Christine. Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army’s Way of War. Oxford University Press, 2014.
– Haider, Ziad. “Sino-Pakistan Relations and Xinjiang’s Uighurs: Politics, Trade, and Islam along the Karakoram Highway.” Asian Survey, vol. 45, no. 4, 2005.
– Kugelman, Michael. “The Future of US-Pakistan Relations.” Wilson Center, 2021.
– PIPS. Trendlines of Pakistan’s Security Challenges. Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies, 2023.
– PIPS. Pakistan’s Evolving Militant Landscape: State Responses and Policy Options. Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies, 2023.
– PIPS. Afghan Peace and Reconciliation: Pakistan’s Interests and Policy Options. Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies, 2023.
Prepared by Ahmed Hafız