Since the independence of the Republic of Sudan, it is known that sometimes civil-looking administrations are always governed by military guardianship, especially in the first place. Omar al-Bashir, who had been in power for the longest time in the country, also came with a military coup. Even if Al-Bashir held his power by holding elections in the last years of his term, the army, which he commanded in general, was his biggest supporter.
The origins of the Rapid Support Forces are based on the notorious Cancavid armed group in the 2003 civil war erupted in the Darfur region west of Sudan. In 2013, the interruption of relations with Musa Hilaliban Omar al-Bashir, who led the armed militias called Cancavid, became the turning point in front of Mohammad Hamdan Dagalu, known by his cousin “Himidti. HDK leader Dagalu has created an influential paramilitary force that has been involved in conflicts in Yemen and Libya and controls some of the gold mines in Darfur and Kurdufan regions of Sudan in 2017’.
In January 2017, the Sudanese Parliament passed the Quick Support Force Act on the connection of the HDK, which is affiliated with the Security and Intelligence Agency, to the Bashir-led army.
At the end of 2018, when street protests began in cities such as Atbera, Khartoum and Kesele, Khartouma was deployed to Khartouma shortly before the overthrow of 30 years of power for regime protections, during the protest process, Omar continued to take part in the side of Bashir. However, the HDK leader was one of the important factors in the overthrow of Bashir by taking a stand for the people when the revolution was nearing its end.
General Abdul Fettah Burhan, the de facto leader of Sudan, came to the forefront in the 2019’ Umar al-Bashir, the country’s 30-year rule. After months of anti-Bashir street protests, Burhan, who was at the head of the army, had established a ’military transition council“, aiming to return to civilian rule by confiscating the administration in April 2019”.
The Sudanese General, who refused to delegate his powers during the transition to civilian rule, carried out another coup in October 2021 ’, overthrowing Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdukariu and becoming the de facto leader of the country. A joint military-civilian government was then formed, but in this government it was overthrown in October 2021 by another coup. And since then, the rivalry between General El-Burhan and General Dagalo has intensified. Since then, Burhan has continued to govern Sudan in an increasingly authoritarian manner, despite demonstrations in the country and the agreement to transition to civilian rule signed in December 2022’.
In Sudan, military forces and civilian representatives signed an agreement in December 2022’ that included the country’s transition to civilian rule and the recruitment of RSF into the military. However, the restructuring plan for RSF to join the military has created discomfort in the paramilitary force.
A week before Hemetin’s statements, Burhan made a statement stating that RSF would not allow independent operations. By referring to this statement, Hemeti defined Burhan as the leftover “man regime” and accused the Sudanese general of raising problems between the army and the RSF.
According to the çivil administration transition agreement, the Sudanese civilian government was supposed to be determined at the beginning of this April, but the regulation was postponed for an indefinite period. On April 14, 2023, the Sudanese army raided the Quick Forces Headquarters.
Reactions and Effects in the International Area
Antonio Guterres, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, made a statement after the conflicts in Sudan, called for the cessation of the conflict. Guterresin Burhan held talks with Hemeti and Egyptian President Sisi.
Turkish Foreign Ministry, “We invite all segments in the water to adhere to the gains of the transition process, to calm and dialogue. Only through national reconciliation can a permanent solution to the problems of Sudan ” was announced.
US Secretary of State Blinken is reportedly in contact with Sudan’s influential countries. The Russian Foreign Ministry said the escalation of the violence was alarming. The Arab League has announced an urgent meeting with the demands of Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The African Union is also expected to hold a meeting on the issue. The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the United States agreed on the importance of halting military tensions by making a joint phone call.
The Egyptian and South Sudanese administrations have offered to mediate between the Sudanese army and the RSF. A process should be managed without confronting Islamic countries. Sudan has to practice a very sensitive diplomacy at the moment, a wrong move will affect not only Sudan, but also many countries
Conflicts erupting between the Sudanese military and the Rapid Support Force could lead to a new wave of unrest that could affect the Sudanese Nahda Dam file.
At a time when Ethiopia is preparing for the fourth stage of the Nahda Dam filling, power conflicts in Sudan are making the future of this issue uncertain. Ethiopia announces that 90 percent of the dam is over, while Addis Ababa is known to be preparing to launch the fourth filling phase of the Nahda Dam.
Egypt sees stability in Sudan as strategic for its own interests. Having to defend their theses without Sudan, especially on international platforms, would be the worst for Cairo.
These conflicts are the footsteps of a long-term conflict that will devastate Middle Eastern and African countries, from Lebanon to Syria, from Libya to Ethiopia.
In a note to his colleagues, University of Massachusetts-based Tufts Sudan expert Alex De Waal wrote that the conflict should be seen as “the first round of civil war. De Waal comments, “If the conflict is not immediately ended, it will become a multi-dimensional game in which regional and some international actors pursue their interests through the supply of money, weapons, and possibly by using their own troops or agents.” He ended with his statements.
Vildan Kabasakal
REFERANCES
“Sudan’daki çatışmaların arka planında ne var, bundan sonra ne olabilir?”
https://www.bbc.com/turkce/articles/cl70ld79vq2o
“ Sudan Krizinin Nedenleri ve Çözüm Önerileri”, https://www.ankasam.org/guney-sudan-krizinin-nedenleri-ve-cozum-onerileri/
“Sudan’da kimler savaşıyor ve çatışmalar dünyanın geri kalanı için neden önemli?”
Tunç Demirtaş, “SUDAN KRİZİNİN KÜRESEL VE BÖLGESEL AKTÖRLERE OLASI ETKİLERİ”, April 2023, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/371912513_SUDAN_KRIZININ_KURESEL_VE_BOLGESEL_AKTORLERE_OLASI_ETKILERI
“Sudan, Yeni Bir “Libya” mı? | Sudan’da Siyasi Krizin Tarafları ve Sorunun Temel Sebepleri”